NV-2: Trends Favor Amodei

Tomorrow, September 13th, voters in Nevada’s 2nd district will go to the polls to choose a successor to Rep. Dean Heller (R), who resigned the seat upon receiving his appointment to the US Senate.  All indications suggest that Republican Mark Amodei, a former state legislator and Nevada Republican Party chairman, has the inside track to victory in the special election.  Democrats nominated twice-elected state Treasurer Kate Marshall, a former Senior Deputy Attorney General.

The 2nd District, which will change drastically when the courts finalize the state’s new four-district congressional map, touches all 17 of Nevada’s counties including part of Clark, which houses the overwhelming majority of the state’s residents.  The new map is likely to confine the district boundaries to the state’s northern portion, anchoring it around the Reno and Carson City population centers.

At the beginning of this mid-year campaign, it appeared that the result would be close.  In fact, Marshall seemed primed to pull an upset particularly because Amodei proved to be a weak fundraiser in previous campaigns and the district voting patterns were not as strongly Republican.  Though the seat was designed as a GOP stronghold in the 2001 redistricting plan, it began trending a bit more Democratic as the decade progressed and can be considered competitive in its current configuration. 

Though no Democrat has carried the seat, the Republican margins of victory have grown smaller.  While former President George W. Bush scored a pair of 57% wins in his presidential campaigns of 2000 and 2004, John McCain managed to place ahead by a mere handful of votes here when matched with Barack Obama in 2008.  Both men scored in the 49th percentile.  The last time the congressional seat was open, when Mr. Heller won in 2006, the Republican margin of victory dropped to 50-45%.  As the incumbent, Heller steadily increased his victory percentage.  In 2008 he won 52-41% and 63-33% two years later.

Financially, Marshall has out-raised Amodei.  The latest available disclosure reports (through 8/24/11) show Ms. Marshall gathering $695,465 to Amodei’s $537,598.  But it is outside spending that gives the Republican the overwhelming campaign advantage.  So far, published independent committee financial disclosures, including political party expenditures, show more than $850,000 going to support Mr. Amodei versus nothing for Ms. Marshall. 

Published polls, though none have been recently conducted, also project Amodei to have the advantage.  Public Policy Polling (8/18-21) gave the Republican only a one-point 43-42% lead, but Magellan Strategies, polling around the same time period (8/15-16), showed Amodei to have a substantial 48-35% edge.  It is likely we will see another published poll or two before Tuesday, thus giving us further indication of the eventual result.

But probably the best indicator of the vote trend are the early ballot tabulations.  Though the votes themselves are not yet counted, the Secretary of State issues reports citing how many ballots the office has received from members of each political party.  At this writing, over 7,600 more Republicans than Democrats have already returned their ballots.  This margin will almost certainly give Amodei a relatively strong lead going into Election Day itself.

But this special election will not signal the end of the long term congressional contest regardless of Tuesday’s outcome.  Sharron Angle, the 2010 Republican nominee who carried this district in the 2010 general election against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid even though she lost statewide, waits in the wings for the winner - in a regular election district that is much more to her liking than the current 2nd.  Should Amodei successfully carry the seat in the special election, he will face a Republican primary battle against Angle next June.  Amodei, who is moderate, will have to protect his right flank to a great degree upon election or he will be vulnerable to a Republican primary challenge from Mrs. Angle, who has proven she is a strong vote-getter in northern Nevada. 

The winner on Tuesday will serve the remainder of the current term, but may find him or herself in a dogfight to retain the seat in the regular election.  It appears that the September 13th vote will likely mark only the effective beginning of this campaign and not the end.


Baldwin Announces; New MA Senate Poll; Halvorson vs. Jackson

Wisconsin:  As expected, Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI-2) formally announced her bid for Wisconsin’s open US Senate seat, yesterday.  The Congresswoman has been preparing a statewide bid for months, but only kicked her fledging operation into high gear when former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) decided not to become a candidate.  Vacating the safely Democratic 2nd District means that 41 seats are now open due to an incumbent announcing he or she will not seek re-election, or because reapportionment or redistricting creates an incumbent-less district.

The Wisconsin campaign has been a slow moving.  Incumbent Sen. Herb Kohl (D) announced back on May 13th that he would not seek a fourth term next year, yet official candidate announcements began only last week.  Rep. Baldwin now becomes the third person to enter the field of contenders.  On the Republican side, former Rep. Mark Neumann (R-WI-1) and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald both say they are in the race.  Former Gov. Tommy Thompson is expected to soon join the Republican contestants.  Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI-3) and ex-Congressman Steve Kagen (D-WI-8) are potential Democratic nomination opponents to Ms. Baldwin.

The Wisconsin Senate race is likely to be one of the closest statewide political contests in the nation next year.  The outcome could well decide the Senate majority, as projections suggest that both parties will likely be at parity after the next election.  Currently, the Democrats hold a 53-47 spread.  Republicans are already likely to gain two seats - North Dakota open and Nebraska - thus bringing the party division to 51D-49R.  Missouri (Sen. Claire McCaskill), Virginia (open - Sen. Jim Webb retiring), and Montana (Sen. Jon Tester) are all toss-up Democratic seats in addition to Wisconsin.  All other races remaining constant, the Republicans would have to win two of the latter four to take the majority; Democrats would have to hold three of four to retain power.

Massachusetts Senate Poll:  The Mass Inc. polling organization surveyed the Bay State electorate for NPR radio station WBUR in Boston (8/30-9/1; 500 likely MA voters).  For the first time, a poll is showing Sen. Scott Brown (R) ahead by less than a double-digit spread.  Despite Obama Administration Consumer Advocate Elizabeth Warren only scoring a 17:13% positive to negative favorability ratio, she pulls to within 35-44% of Sen. Brown. 

Against the other potential Democratic contenders, however, Brown still remains firmly in control.  When paired with author and Episcopal priest Bob Massie, the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor in 1994, the Senator leads 45-29%.  Against businessman and former US Senate candidate Alan Khazei, Brown’s advantage is a full fifteen points, 45-30%.  Finally, in a one-on-one contest with Newton Mayor Setti Warren, the first-term Senatorial incumbent pulls away by an even greater 46-28% margin.  Brown’s favorability index is a strong 54:25%.

IL-2:  A rather surprising announcement came from the Chicago suburbs at the end of last week.  Former Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL-11), who lost her congressional seat 43-57% to Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL-11) after just one term in office, says she will challenge Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL-2) in the 2012 March Democratic primary for his 2nd District seat.  Prior to her serving in Congress, Ms. Halvorson was the state Senate Majority Leader.

This is a curious move and appears to be a long shot political effort.  While the new 2nd District does contain part of the territory Halvorson previously represented, it is overwhelmingly comprised of Jackson’s constituents.  In fact, 78.1% of the new 2nd’s inhabitants remain from Rep. Jackson’s current district, versus just 21.8% of residents from Halvorson’s former 11th CD who are now placed in IL-2.  The racial composition is another factor that cuts dramatically in Mr. Jackson’s favor.  As many as 55.8% of the district population is African American versus just 29.6% who are non-Hispanic White.  Hispanics account for 12.8% of the population mix, while Asians number less than 1% of the voting base. 

Favor Jesse Jackson, Jr. to win the Democratic nomination here, but Debbie Halvorson’s entry into the race certainly brings a new twist to this political story.





Incumbents Facing Challenges - Part II

Continuing our two part series about incumbent House members who will face serious 2012 election challenges, below is a listing of 22 more competitive incumbents from states where redistricting is complete or clear. 

IN-8 - Larry Bucshon (R) - In attempting to gain a 7R-2D advantage for the delegation, the 8th district of freshman Rep. Bucshon was weakened, from the Republican perspective.  Expect competition here, but the new incumbent remains the favorite.

IA-3 - Leonard Boswell (D)/Tom Latham (R) - In the only intra-party pairing of the new election cycle so far, veteran Reps. Boswell and Latham square-off in a marginal district.  Mr. Boswell represents more of the new district, but the voting patterns tilt a touch toward Mr. Latham.  This race begins as a pure Toss-up.

IA-4 - Steve King (R) - The new western-based 4th district is mostly comprised of Rep. King’s current 5th district and part of Mr. Latham’s old 4th.  Christie Vilsack (D), wife of former Gov. Tom Vilsack who serves as President Obama’s Agriculture Secretary, has already announced her intention to challenge Rep. King.  This will be a competitive race because of Vilsack’s fundraising capability.  King begins with the decided advantage.

LA-3 - Jeff Landry (R)/Charles Boustany (R) - Louisiana losing a congressional seat pits freshman Rep. Jeff Landry against veteran Charles Boustany in a Republican primary battle.  The winner retains the seat.  Boustany is the early favorite.

MI-9 - Sander Levin (D)/Gary Peters (D) - Michigan losing a district pairs 15-term Rep. Levin against two-term Rep. Peters.  Levin, who will be 80 at the time of the next election, is a retirement possibility.  Peters has also tested the waters to run for Oakland County Executive.  The winner of this primary battle, should it occur, holds the seat.

MO-2 - Russ Carnahan (D) - The loss of a seat in Missouri has forced Rep. Carnahan either to challenge Rep. Lacy Clay in the 1st District Democratic primary or try to survive in the neighboring Republican 2nd District seat, in open status because Rep. Todd Akin is running for the Senate.  Carnahan is competitive here, but will be the underdog.

NH-2 - Charlie Bass (R) - The 2nd District is now more like Vermont than New Hampshire in terms of voting patterns.  This means the seat is decidedly Democratic.  Rep. Bass regained the position he lost in 2006, but by just one percentage point over Democratic lobbyist Anne McLane Kuster.  Redistricting must move only 254 people between the two districts, so Bass’ hopes for a more Republican seat are gone.  This is a prime Democratic conversion opportunity.

NY-25 - Ann Marie Buerkle (R) - Though redistricting won’t be completed well into next year, we can count on a competitive race in this Syracuse-based district.  Chances are the city will remain in tact, meaning it will anchor a seat in the Upstate region.  Former Rep. Dan Maffei (D), the man Ms. Buerkle unseated in 2010, has already announced his intention to run again next year.

NC-3 - Rep. Walter Jones (R) - Though Rep. Jones has a safe Republican seat in which to run for re-election, the district has vast new territory for him.  Already, retired New Bern Police Chief Frank Palumbo (R) has announced a GOP primary challenge to Mr. Jones.  Others could follow suit.

NC-4 - David Price (D)/Brad Miller (D) - The Republican redistricting plan placed two Democratic incumbents in a seat that now stretches from Raleigh to Fayetteville.  This will be a difficult primary as each man represents about one-third of this new district.  The winner retains the seat for the Democrats.

NC-7 - Mike McIntyre (D) - Redistricting also threw Rep. McIntyre into a difficult district.  This will be a top Republican conversion target.  2010 GOP nominee Ilario Pantano and state Sen. David Rouzer (R) have announced their intentions to run.

NC-8 - Larry Kissell (D) - Rep. Kissell loses a great number of Democratic votes in this new redistricting plan, making him a tempting GOP target.  Three local officials, including one who isn’t from the district, have announced for the seat.  Expect more candidates to soon enter the fray.

NC-11 - Heath Shuler (D) - Rep. Shuler may have received the most difficult draw of all, as he now represents the most Republican congressional district in North Carolina.  Local District Attorney Jeff Hunt and several local officials are already officially running.

OR-4 - Peter DeFazio (D) - The seat became a touch more Republican in redistricting and Rep. DeFazio raised eyebrows with his comment earlier this week that he is thinking about retirement.  Could be competitive in an open situation.  Republican Art Robinson, who received 44% of the vote against DeFazio in 2010, is running again.

RI-1 - David Cicilline (D) - Negative stories about Rep. Cicilline’s financial management of Providence when he was Mayor has made the freshman Congressman potentially vulnerable.  Two strong Republican candidates, including 2010 nominee John Loughlin and former state police chief Brendan Doherty, are running.  Chances appear high that Cicilline could draw Democratic primary opposition, too.

TN-3 - Charles Fleischmann (R) - Though redistricting is not yet finalized in Tennessee, freshman Rep. Fleischmann in the Chattanooga-based seat will likely face primary opposition.  Robin Smith, the local county Republican Party chair who lost to Fleischmann by less than 1,500 votes in 2010, is considering a re-match.

TN-4 - Scott DesJarlais (R) - Mr. DesJarlais, who unseated then-Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) by more than 30,000 votes last November, could see a GOP primary challenge from state Sen. Bill Ketron (R).  Sen. Ketron is on the legislative committee in charge of redistricting, which presumably allows him to draw the 4th district to his liking.

TN-8 - Stephen Fincher (R) - Though redistricting is not completed, the 8th district, by virtue of its geographic location in the northwest corner of the state, will likely be competitive in 2012.  Mr. Fincher is the first modern day Republican Congressman from this region.

TX-35 - Lloyd Doggett (D) - If the Texas map survives its legal challenges, Rep. Doggett will face a stiff Democratic primary battle in the new 35th District that includes parts of Austin and San Antonio.  Already, state Rep. Juan Castro (D), twin brother to San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (D), has announced he will challenge Doggett. 

UT-2 - Jim Matheson (D) - Redistricting will likely put Rep. Matheson in another strongly Republican seat.  He already represents the most Republican district held by a Democratic member.  Matheson is also a potential statewide candidate.  The Republicans will win the seat if he vacates.

WV-1 - David McKinley (R) - Redistricting kept the 1st District largely in tact, which is a seat Mr. McKinley can hold, despite it being in Democratic hands for generations before 2010.  Ex-Rep. Alan Mollohan, who was defeated in the Democratic primary after 14 terms in office, is a possible candidate in 2012 appear less than earlier in the year.  The Democrats will field a strong challenger here, and this race will be competitive. 

WI-7 - Sean Duffy (R) - Mr. Duffy won a seat that was in former Rep. David Obey’s (D) hands for more than 40 years.  The district gained Republicans in the re-draw, but Rep. Duffy can expect a stiff re-election challenge from a strong Democrat.

In the last two reports we have already isolated 44 incumbents who will face a competitive re-election challenge in either the primary or the general election.  Keep in mind that no less than 13 major states still have not completed their redistricting, including Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.  Add in at least 26 more open seats and it is conceivable that as many as 90-100 House seats could be contested as the 2012 election hits its stride.


Incumbents Facing Challenges - Part I

Though it is still difficult to forecast the total US House political picture next year, mostly because redistricting is only about half finished, we already see that more than 40 sitting members will draw serious competition in either the 2012 primary or general election. 

Below is a listing of 22 incumbents who will be in competitive campaigns next year from states where redistricting is complete.  The second half of the overall group will be featured in our Wednesday report.

AR-1 - Rick Crawford (R) - Redistricting added more Democrats to what already was a highly Democratic seat.  Crawford will be in a toss-up situation.

CA-3 - John Garamendi (D) - The new 3rd district could conceivably elect a Republican.  Watch for a serious GOP challenge to Rep. Garamendi, who is serving his first full term.

CA-9 - Jerry McNerney (D) - Potential challenges in both the Democratic primary and general election await Mr. McNerney, who has chosen to run in a seat that doesn’t include his Bay Area political base.

CA-10 - Jeff Denham (R) - Though Rep. Denham will be the heavy favorite in this new district, it is not as Republican as his current CA-19.

CA-16 - Dennis Cardoza (D)/Jim Costa (D) - The redistricting commission greatly altered the Fresno area.  Rep. Costa announced for CA-16 even though his home is in the new 21st, which is much more Republican.  Rumors persist that Cardoza may retire.

CA-24 - Lois Capps (D) - The new Santa Barbara seat is a 50/50 district now, so former Lt. Gov. and state Senator Abel Maldonado (R) is a very strong challenger here.

CA-25/26 - Elton Gallegly (R) - Rep. Gallegly can either run against fellow GOP Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA-25) or in the new marginal 26th district (Ventura County).  Keep a retirement watch on Gallegly who even announced such before the 2008 election, only to change his mind.

CA-30 - Brad Sherman (D)/Howard Berman (D) - This will be a tough primary and general election for the two veteran Democratic Congressmen.  One will not return to the next Congress.

CA-31 - Joe Baca (D) - Rep. Baca does not like his new, and more competitive, 31st district and may hop over to the more Democratic 35th CD, created as an open seat. 

CA-32 - David Dreier (R) - Congressman Dreier’s current 26th district seat was broken up into six different parts.  He will not run in District 32, as this seat is highly Democratic.  Most of his options are poor.  If Elton Gallegly does not run in District 26, then that seat is a possibility for Dreier.  He could also swing down into District 31 if Rep. Baca moves to CA-35.

CA-38/47 - Linda Sanchez (D) - There is a strong possibility that Rep. Sanchez will face strong primary opposition either from Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-CA-38) in the new 38th District, where both of their homes reside, or in the Long Beach-based new 47th District.  There, state Sen. Alan Lowenthal (D) has already said he will run.  Rep. Laura Richardson (D-CA-37) is also a potential candidate.  This seat is also in play for the Republicans.  Former Rep. Steve Kuykendall (R-CA-36), is saying that he, too, will run here next year.

CA-39 - Ed Royce (R)/Gary Miller (R) - This is a Republican pairing.  The winner retains the seat for the GOP, but one of the two will not return.  Most of the territory currently belongs to Royce, who has to be regarded as the favorite in this new configuration.

CA-44 - Janice Hahn (D) - Newly-elected Rep. Hahn will likely draw a challenge from fellow Democratic Rep. Laura Richardson (D-CA-37) and state Assemblyman Isadore Hall (D).  The seat is heavily minority, so facing either a strong African American or Hispanic opponent in the general election could doom Hahn’s re-election chances.

CA-52 - Brian Bilbray (R) - Rep. Bilbray was paired with Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA-49) in new District 49, but will run in the new 52nd.  The seat should elect a Republican, but the Democrats are competitive.  Former state Assemblywoman Lori Saldana (D) has already announced her candidacy.

GA-12 - John Barrow (D) - Assuming the current Georgia redistricting map passes the Georgia Senate and is signed by Gov. Nathan Deal (R), Rep. Barrow will find himself in a much more competitive district.  The new 12th will go from a mid-50s Obama district to one in the mid-40s.  The African American population drops precipitously, as well.

IL-8/14 - Joe Walsh (R)/Randy Hultgren (R) - Another Republican pairing.  Rep. Walsh’s current 8th district was eviscerated in redistricting.  His best chance at winning re-election to a second term is to challenge fellow GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren in new District 14.  A child support payment scandal surrounding Walsh puts Hultgren in the early favorite’s position.

IL-10 - Bob Dold (R) - Redistricting makes the marginal 10th even more Democratic.  Freshman Rep. Dold has already announced he will run for re-election here.

IL-11 - Adam Kinzinger (R)/Judy Biggert (R) - Rep. Kinzinger, like Mr. Dreier in California, saw his current district split multiple ways.  He will have several choices of where to seek re-election.  New District 11 is certainly one of his options, but none are particularly appealing unless Rep. Don Manzullo (R-IL-16) decides to retire.  Rep. Judy Biggert (R-IL-13) could also seek re-election here, though the new 11th is much more Democratic than her current seat.  Former Rep. Bill Foster (D-IL-14) has already announced his candidacy in this newly-configured seat as has a strong chance to convert it to the Democratic column, particularly with President Obama leading the ticket.

IL-13 - Tim Johnson (R) - Originally paired with Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL-19) in the new 15th District, Rep. Johnson has chosen to seek re-election in the marginal 13th District.  He can expect serious general election competition.

IL-17 - Bobby Schilling (R) - Though redistricting brought the seat back toward Schilling’s base in the Quad Cities region, the new 17th will be even more Democratic than the previous district.  Several strong Dem challengers are already running.  Schilling finds himself in a toss-up situation, at best.




The California Pairings

Now that the California redistricting map is law, we can examine the various incumbent pairings and potential pairings that could exist.  The California Citizens Redistricting Commission clearly did not pay heed to incumbency, since a huge number of sitting incumbents were placed in districts with a colleague.

District 4:  Dan Lungren/Tom McClintock - Since the map was finalized on August 15th, Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA-3) indicated that he may hop over into new District 4 to challenge Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA-4) in the Republican primary rather than stand for re-election in new District 7, where his home was placed.  This would be a curious move since District 7, which contains the majority of Lungren’s current territory, could certainly elect a Republican but would likely be at least moderately competitive throughout the decade.  

New District 4, which begins in South Lake Tahoe and travels south down the Nevada border all the way to Yosemite National Park, is comprised of a preponderance of McClintock’s current CD.  The fact that Lungren would even suggest such a move indicates he likely feels more comfortable doing battle against a Republican than facing a Democrat in a competitive general election, especially when winning the 2012 battle against McClintock would likely yield a safe seat until 2022.  The new CA primary law that qualifies the two top vote-getters into the general election regardless of party means that the pair would likely face each other in both June and November, adding yet another caveat to the northern California political picture.  

It is probable that Lungren will stay in District 7 because he would be a decided underdog to McClintock in District 4.  The fact that Lungren would suggest taking on his Republican colleague in this configuration is quite surprising, however.

District 16:  Dennis Cardoza/Jim Costa - This is another surprising situation.  The Commission map was not particularly kind to the Central Valley incumbents.  Technically, three sitting members, Cardoza (D-CA-18), Costa (D-CA-20), and Republican Jeff Denham (R-CA-19) were all placed in new District 16.  Each, however, has an adjacent seat in which to run.  Denham will choose new District 10, which is more competitive than his current district, but still one that he can win.

Since the map was enacted this past Monday, retirement rumors began swirling around Cardoza, suggesting that the would rather leave the House than run against his friend and fellow Democrat, Costa.  The new 21st district, however, is a place where Costa could run - in fact, in contains the bulk of his current CD - but apparently the Congressman does not want to face another close general election in a seat that is even more Republican.  Costa only squeaked through in the last election 51-49%.  Should Cardoza retire, thus leaving the new 16th district to Costa, the latter would become the favorite though competition from a Republican is still a real possibility.  This is another curious situation that has yet to be resolved.  The GOP has a chance to gain at least one seat, probably the 21st, in this region.

District 25:  Buck McKeon/Elton Gallegly - This is yet another situation where it appears a member would rather face a competitive primary than go hard against a candidate from the other party.  The homes of Reps. McKeon (R-CA-25) and Gallegly (R-CA-24) were both placed in new District 25, which is comprised largely of McKeon’s current district.  Gallegly could also run in the new Ventura County-based 26th district, which is a 50/50 D-R seat that only slightly tilts Republican.  

Reports from the Gallegly camp, however, indicate he is looking more favorably on challenging McKeon than running in the marginal district, even though he would be the lone incumbent in the latter and currently represents a large portion of the territory.  Based upon the draw in the new 25th, it is hard to classify Gallegly as anything but a decided underdog to McKeon, which makes it surprising to see him suggest he might take that option.  Gallegly retiring, as he almost did two terms ago, is also a distinct possibility.  

District 30:  Brad Sherman/Howard Berman - The San Fernando Valley will see a major pairing as the area’s two veteran Democratic members will square-off.  This is another of the California situations that could witness a major battle between the two in the qualifying primary and then in the general election, as the most likely scenario points to both Democrats moving into November under the state’s new election law.  Sherman already represents about 50% of the new 30th District, as compared to Berman’s 20%, and he begins with more than $3.6 million in the bank, but that doesn’t guarantee victory.  Berman is the more experienced campaigner and should command greater internal party support than Sherman.  This race could turn into an epic political battle.  

One other possibility, however, is for Sherman to hop over into the marginal 26th district.  Particularly if Rep. Gallegly chooses to bypass the district, the 26th might become attractive to Sherman, if he thinks he can’t beat Berman.  But, Sherman represents only a sliver of the current 26th, and he would be vulnerable to a Republican challenge.  Thus, he has two difficult options.

District 38:  Grace Napolitano/Linda Sanchez - The Commission map drawers were also not kind to Rep. Linda Sanchez (R-CA-39).  Regardless of where she chooses to run, she is likely to face a Democratic incumbent.  Her home is placed in new District 38, but this seat is predominantly composed of Rep. Grace Napolitano’s current 38th CD.  Napolitano has already announced her intention to seek re-election in the new 38th, thus forcing Sanchez into a difficult decision.  She must either challenge Napolitano where she will be a decided underdog, or run in another seat.  Her most likely option would be new District 47, the Long Beach seat, but she will face both state Sen. Alan Lowenthal (D) and probably a significant Republican challenger.  It is possible that Rep. Laura Richardson (D-CA-37) could move here, too.  

It is likely a major Democratic primary battle will ensue here, with no guarantee that Rep. Sanchez qualifies for the general election.  Lowenthal, who represents a large chunk of this seat in the state Senate, says he’s running for this congressional seat regardless of who else enters the race.  If a strong Republican runs, then the split Democratic vote in the June primary will likely yield a consensus GOP candidate at least finishing second.  

District 39:  Ed Royce/Gary Miller - Something’s got to give in Orange County.  The now-official map places the homes of Reps. Ed Royce (R-CA-40) and Gary Miller (R-CA-42) in new District 39, a seat that largely favors Royce in terms of current territory.  Royce could choose to move south and challenge Rep. John Campbell (R-CA-48) in new CD 45, but this would still subject him to a pairing with a Republican incumbent.  For his part, Miller says he won’t run against Royce or any other incumbent, meaning he could be headed toward retirement.  If Royce does move into CD 45, then Campbell would be forced into a pairing either against the former or moving into new District 48 to take on Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA-46).  In any event, among the quartet of Orange County Republican Congressmen - Royce, Miller, Campbell and Rohrabacher - expect one of them not to return.

District 44:  Janice Hahn/Laura Richardson - The situation involving the heavily minority new 44th District is also surprising.  Rep. Janice Hahn (D-CA-36), who just won her seat in a July special election, has already announced she will seek re-election in the heavily Hispanic 44th District rather than face Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA-30) in the district that contains the bulk of her current seat.  In this Compton-Culver City-South Gate CD, Hahn will have a white population that tallies only 9%, meaning she is vulnerable to a challenge from a minority office holder such as Assemblyman Isadore Hall (D), who has already announced his intention to run for Congress, and probably Rep. Laura Richardson, since she currently represents a large portion of the territory.  

The new primary law cuts poorly for Hahn.  She very well may be able to qualify for the general election by at least placing second in June, but in November she will be one-on-one against either a black or Hispanic opponent.  In this situation, particularly since she currently represents such a small portion of the 44th, she becomes a decided underdog.

The California situation is likely to dominate the 2012 US House picture because as many as 20 seats could become competitive either in the primary or general election, and in many cases, both.  Watch in the coming days for even further developments.