ADAM PUTNAM’S BIZARRE PREDICTIONS

House GOP Conference Chairman Adam Putnam (R-FL) recently told a St. Petersburg Times reporter that a lot Republican incumbents are likely to fare poorly this year regardless of how John McCain runs at the top of the ticket. "I think you'll see [GOP] House members who won their last race by 60%-65% lose because of the turnout model that Obama brings," Putnam explained about congressional seats in the south during the interview session. It is apparent that Mr. Putnam may be paying too much attention to Washington’s “conventional wisdom” and to his Democratic opponents, because the facts of the 2008 primary turnout model do not lead to such a conclusion.

Drawing upon data of primary voting trends researched at George Mason University, the 2004 and 2008 primary turnout figures from 14 selected states can be reasonably compared. The results defy the conventional wisdom that Barack Obama was driving turnout nationally throughout the primary process. Of the fourteen places, distributed throughout each region of the country and representative of both large and small states, it appears that Hillary Clinton was at least equally responsible for an increased Democratic turnout. Understanding that Republican turnout was extremely low in 2004 because President George W. Bush had little competition for renomination, the GOP actually had the larger turnout increases in most of the selected states.

Among Democrats, the domain with the largest 2008 increase was Texas. With a voter participation of 2.86 million, the Democratic turnout went up 241.5% from the previous four years. Interestingly, Clinton won this contest, likely because of the heightened participation. The Connecticut primary turnout went up 156.8% and Virginia’s more than doubled at 140%. Obama was victorious in both of these places. The final state with a triple digit percentage increase was Massachusetts, swelling 100.5%. Like in Texas, Clinton carried a majority of the vote here. So, in the top four increased-turnout states, Clinton and Obama each won two.

Even in the south, the results did not change much from what we have just presented. In South Carolina, an Obama state, the turnout increased 83.7% and set a record for Democratic participation. A similar result occurred in Georgia, where turnout was up 69.3% from 2004, and again the Illinois Senator was the

victor. But in a place on Georgia’s border, and voting on the same day (February 5^th), Tennessee turned out an equally high 69.1%, but the Volunteer State voters chose Clinton. Another southern state, Oklahoma, experienced a turnout increase of 37.9% and they, too, chose the former First Lady. In the 14 tested states, turnout was up an average of 92.4%. Both Clinton and Obama won seven times. Of the 36 states hosting 2008 primaries, overall turnout was up an average of 30.6% of the voting eligible population. So, while it is clear that Democratic turnout was substantially increased over the John Kerry-John Edwards nomination campaign in 2004, it is not abundantly clear that Obama was the driving force that brought so many more voters to the polls.

In a way, the more stunning numbers were actually on the Republican side. In fact, the contest that featured the largest increase in primary voter participation was among Massachusetts Republicans. There, turnout was up 572.4% over 2004. While Democrats increased their turnouts 69.3% in Georgia, Republicans bested their 2004 mark by 497.1%. Of course most of this increase is because Bush had no real opposition for the 2004 nomination, but then the Kerry-Edwards campaign petered out after the early primaries, too. So while Democratic turnout went up impressively, the Republican participation percentage rose even more. While the Democrats’ average increase was 92.4% in the tested states, the GOP average was 272.2%. Though the raw number turnout figure was higher among Democrats, the Republicans were not far behind, and in some places like Wisconsin and Tennessee, the gap between the Ds and Rs was actually smaller in 2008 than 2004.

These numbers obviously tell us that 2008 primary voter participation was up all across the board. Though clearly Obama brought out more people from certain population segments (African Americans; younger voters), he was not responsible for driving all turnout. It’s also apparent that the actual research does not substantiate such dire predictions as those coming from Putnam. It’s now time for Republican leaders to stop wallowing in the 2006 election results, understand what the trends are truly showing, and begin to chart a more positive course for the future.