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Tuesday
08Jul2008

OBAMA: ALREADY PLANNING FOR 2011

According to the Houston Chronicle newspaper, Barack Obama’s top advisors are already utilizing some of their current resources to affect politics way beyond this election. In fact, the campaign appears to be on the threshold of becoming its own internal political party. The publication cites a strategy session held in mid-June when chief political strategist David Axelrod came to Houston to meet with an assemblage of Texas Democratic donors. He reportedly informed the group that while the Obama campaign does not plan to make an overt play to carry Texas in 2008, they are sending at least 15 paid staff members to the Lone Star State to organize at the local level. Their objective: attempting to regain control of the state House of Representatives in order to re-institute Democratic congressional and legislative redistricting plans after the 2010 census.

In 2003, Republicans, citing what noted political analyst and commentator Michael Barone previously called the “worst gerrymander in history”, ran a controversial bill through the legislature that changed a court-imposed congressional map. The 2001 legislative session failed to produce a new plan – in fact, neither side could even get a redistricting bill through a House or Senate committee – and with the state gaining two new congressional seats via national reapportionment, a federal three-judge panel drew a 32-seat Texas map prior to the 2002 elections.

Once Republicans gained control of the legislature in that very election, the new leaders acted immediately to institute new congressional districts. The Legislative Redistricting Board, a constitutionally-created panel of statewide elected officials had the power to redraw the state legislative boundaries – and did so in late 2001 -- but they had no authority to alter congressional districts. The fact that Democrats were winning 56% of the US House seats while only carrying an average statewide vote of 46%, spurred the group into action. The new plan resulted in a gain of six Republican seats and better aligned the congressional map with electoral voting preferences. Democrats sued to overturn, arguing that the legislature did not have the right to change the plan after the court imposed its own map. The US Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the legislative action was proper. They further ruled 5-4 that one of the districts did not meet all Voting Rights Act specifications, and the three-judge panel later redrew that part of the map.

This brings us to the present. Now the Obama forces, using vast resources to develop a ground organization to affect more than just their own campaign, are already attempting to strengthen their perceived future foundation in Congress. This foresight from a presidential effort may be unprecedented. It speaks to their confidence in the battle against John McCain -- in that they would actually divert substantial resources away from the current campaign to plan for the future -- but it is this type of strategic planning that propelled the first term Senator past former First Lady Hillary Clinton , whose nomination was universally portrayed as a foregone conclusion when the campaigns began.

The fact that the Obama brain trust would have an intricate long-range plan for a state like Texas, even though it is not on their active target list, shows that they will leave no political stone unturned. It is this type of organizational ability that is producing top to bottom intangible benefits against McCain and the Republicans, and may take them all the way to the White House – and possibly even beyond.

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