HI-1: REP. ABERCROMBIE to RESIGN

Rep. Neil Abercrombie ignited a Hawaii political fire storm on Friday when he announced via the Internet that he will soon resign from Congress.  Abercrombie, already a candidate for Governor in 2010, will now concentrate his full energies on campaigning for the state’s top job.  He did not cite a specific day as to when the resignation will take effect.

The move took the state’s Democratic leaders by surprise.  Party chairman Brian Schatz said he was expecting the Congressman to leave before the end of the current session, but is “surprised how early” Abercrombie’s decision came. 

Sen. Daniel Inouye, himself running for re-election in 2010, disapproves of the Representative’s exit.  In an email response to the Hawaii Star Bulletin newspaper, Inouye said, “It leaves us a vote shy in the House at a time when major policy changes like health care reform, a war spending measure, the Akaka Bill and others are shaping up for debate and passage."

The greater intrigue, however, surrounds Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann.  He has also filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee and is Abercrombie’s main opponent for the Democratic nomination.  The Mayor, too, was critical of Mr. Abercrombie departing the House mid-term.  "He is leaving the state in a lurch.  He has become a very influential member of Congress. I think he put a lot of people in a difficult situation, including the city," Hannemann said during a news interview. 

Abercrombie and Hannemann have a history of opposing each other.  When the 1^st congressional district was vacated in the middle of 1986, Abercrombie won a special election to fill out the remainder of the existing term, but lost the Democratic nomination to Hannemann for the succeeding term (to begin in 1987) on the same day.  Hannemann then went on to lose the 1986 general election to Republican Pat Saiki.  Abercrombie was subsequently elected to the House in 1990 after Saiki chose to run for the Senate instead of seeking re-election. 

The resignation throws the 2010 race for the open 1^st CD into chaos.  Already former 2^nd district Rep. Ed Case and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa were seeking the Democratic nomination.  The winner will oppose consensus GOP candidate Charles Djou, a Honolulu city Councilman and former state legislator, who is quickly becoming recognized as one of the Republican’s best national congressional candidates. 

This is also not the first time that Case and Hanabusa have faced each other.  The two ran in the open 2^nd district 2003 special after the death of Rep. Patsy Mink; a free-for-all election won by Case.  He then unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Daniel Akaka in the 2006 Democratic primary after serving less than two full terms in Congress. 

Many believe that a tough Democratic primary decided on September 18^th will give Djou a strong chance at an upset win the following November.  Now, the prospects of a special election could considerably change the campaign’s political outlook – or not.

Under Hawaii law, the state’s Chief Elections Officer is responsible for  scheduling special elections and not the Governor.  Kevin Cronin, the current holder of that particular post but who is already leaving by year’s end, is saying his department lacks the funding to hold a special congressional election.  He further believes that the Office of Elections doesn’t even have access to voting machines prior to next year’s regular primary and general elections. 

Since Cronin’s eventual replacement will make the scheduling decision, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy what will happen next.  It is conceivable that the seat could even remain vacant until the regular 2010 primary (Sept 18) or general election (Nov 2) at which time the special election could be run concurrently. 

Next year’s HI-1 race was already among the most interesting in the nation, and a place where the Republicans have expanded the competitive playing field.  Now, even greater attention will be given to what promises to be a hot political campaign in a faraway tropical paradise.