NEW DATA SHOWS SPECTER, TOOMEY TIED

The new Quinnipiac University large-sample Pennsylvania poll (12-/8-14; 1,381 registered PA voters; 619 Democrats) forecasts a dead heat between party-switching incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (D) and Republican former Congressman Pat Toomey.  According to the data the two are tied at 44%.  Little has changed since the late September Q-poll that showed Toomey leading 43-42%.

The good news for Specter is his showing among Democrats.  Against Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7), his opponent for the party’s nomination, the Senator leads 53-30%.  Specter improves nine points from the late September poll relating to primary performance.  Sestak, however, gained too, up five points.  Against his GOP opponent, Specter pulls 78% of Democrats.  Toomey gets 80% of Republicans, meaning that the former GOP Senator is gaining acceptance among Democratic rank and file voters.  In what should be a cause for concern for the Senator, Independents favor Toomey by a 44-36% margin. The Republican leads Sestak 40-35% when those two are individually matched.

The bad news for Specter relates to his job approval and favorability ratings, and especially his re-elect score.  In terms of job performance, Specter is rated 47:45% positive to negative.  In an unusual occurrence, the Senator’s personal ratings are actually worse than the grade he receives for executing his Senatorial duties.  Forty-three percent of those surveyed have a positive impression about Arlen Specter the person, but 45% view him negatively.  Conversely, Toomey’s personal favorability index is 35:10%, and Sestak records 20:9%.  The Senator’s worst number is clearly his re-elect rating.  As to whether the sample believes the Senator deserves re-election, only 38% answered affirmatively versus a full 50% who do not.

The poll also rated Pennsylvania’s other statewide officials.  Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. fared the best among the respondents, with a job approval rating of 53:29%.  President Obama scored 49:45%, but was upside down on the key issues of handling the economy (45:50%) and healthcare (37:56%), while being favorably viewed on the Afghanistan question (51:41%).  Gov. Ed Rendell also posted negative job approval numbers (43:49%), while the state legislature was rated overwhelmingly poor, 25:64%.

In the open Governor’s race, which is a critical office from a national congressional redistricting perspective, Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to maintain a sizable lead against all potential Democratic nominees.  Corbett, with an overwhelmingly strong 43:6% approval rating, leads Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato 45-30%, with a 43-33% advantage over state Auditor Jack Wagner.  Among the five Democratic candidates, Onorato leads the field, but only registers 14% support, meaning the nomination fight is wide open.  On the Republican side, Corbett leads Philadelphia area Rep. Jim Gerlach 38-12%.