VA-GOV: DEEDS RACKS UP STUNNING WIN

Democrat Creigh Deeds (above) will challenge Republican Bob McDonnell for the Governorship of VirginiaAll the polls understated state Sen. Creigh Deeds' political strength. While late surveys showed Deeds beginning to pull away from former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe and ex-Alexandria Delegate Brian Moran, the Charlottesville legislator's margin of victory was far greater than predicted.

With virtually all of the ballots counted, the winner racked up 50% of the vote, versus 26% for McAuliffe and Moran's 24%. The bigger story of the night, however, may be the abysmal voter participation number. Just 6.5% of Virginia's registered voters came to the polls to cast a vote for any candidate. The highest vote participation figure was in the city of Falls Church (21.3%); the low was in Lee County, where just 1.5% of the registered voters came to the polls. Primaries never get much official publicity in the state because the parties so often have consensus candidates or nominations decided by convention. Though there is virtually no notification as to the primary schedule, the candidates did spend a combined $12 million to broadcast their message.

Deeds victory was complete. He won 124 localities (cities and counties) compared to just five each for McAuliffe and Moran. He also carried ten of the state's eleven congressional district, losing only the Richmond-Norfolk based 3rd district (represented by Rep. Bobby Scott (D)) to McAuliffe. Deeds even carried northern Virginia's 8th CD, represented by Moran's brother Jim.

The new gubernatorial nominee had several advantages in this race, even though his other two opponents commanded much larger campaign war chests.  McAuliffe, for example, spent $6.9 million on his primary campaign, which translated into each of his votes costing more than $81.00.

Coming from the central part of the Commonwealth, Deeds had the ability to unite downstate against the two northern Virginia candidates, who were splitting their vote rich Democratic base. Additionally, Deeds had already won a statewide nomination, four years ago for Attorney General and came within 323 votes of defeating Republican Bob McDonnell, the same man he will now face in the current general election. Finally, as Moran went on the attack against McAuliffe, after the former DNC chairman opened up a substantial polling lead, Deeds was able to remain above the negative fray and became a positive alternative for voters repulsed by McAuliffe and Moran's tactics. He also ran to the right of the other two in relation to the current state budget issues, calling for a more a reasonable Commonwealth spending and tax policy, while underscoring his support for the 2nd Amendment and other related gun owner issues.

Perhaps the most surprising stat of the evening was Deeds' performance in northern Virginia. Despite, as previously mentioned, both McAuliffe and Moran coming from the area, Deeds' won the region with the exception of the city of Alexandria (Moran, a previous state and local official from the city, carried this locality). Deeds posted 49% in Fairfax County, 47% in Arlington, 47% in Loudon, 43% in Prince William, and 47% in Stafford, placing first by a substantial margin in each place. He scored 48 and 53% in the cities of Falls Church and Fairfax City, respectively.

Sen. Deeds momentum seemed to receive a jolt - he was running third in every early poll - when he surprisingly obtained the Washington Post's endorsement over the two Washington, DC suburban candidates, both of whom were well known to the Post's editorial board.

He now starts the general election in an underdog position to McDonnell, but it seems obvious that the Democrats nominated their strongest candidate last night.