Mark Kirk (R) of Illinois Though the Illinois political picture has been fairly stable for the past month, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10) continues to find himself in an advantageous position, nonetheless. The five-term Congressman is still actively weighing a statewide run, but he’s wisely sitting back and letting his somewhat beleaguered Democratic opponents make the first move.

Attorney General Lisa Madigan, a former state Senator and daughter of powerful state House Speaker Mike Madigan, is clearly the Democrats’ strongest statewide candidate, but she can only run for one office. Polling shows that she would easily defeat appointed Sen. Roland Burris in the Democratic primary as well as brushing aside all other potential contenders such as tainted state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. But, Madigan also fares well in the Governor’s race, the office she purportedly truly wants. Though new Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn’s favorability ratings are decent, Madigan beats him, at least according to early polling.

As we all know, scandal and turmoil have rocked Illinois since then-Senator Barack Obama resigned to assume the Presidency. With Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich being impeached for, among other things, trying to sell Obama’s Senate seat to the highest bidder, Quinn, then Lt. Governor, ascended to the state’s top office. The appointment controversy surrounding Burris, made just before the Governor was forcibly removed, has made his primary defeat a foregone conclusion, but it still places the party in a precarious position. Fending off scandal, impeachment, and what appear to be divisive primary battles, the Democrats find themselves in a potentially vulnerable position when matched against Rep. Kirk.

The Congressman has been able to consistently win his increasingly Democratic suburban district north of Chicago in spite of the state and national political trends that have cut against his party. Last year, after surviving a difficult 2006 challenge, Kirk raised more money than any other House Republican ($5.45 million) and won a tough 53-47% victory in a district that favorite son Obama carried with 61% of the vote. Furthermore, Kirk’s moderate issue stances puts him in step with the typical Illinois voter.

Should Ms. Madigan eventually decided to run for the Senate, Rep. Kirk pivoting into the Governor’s race carries great benefits for the national GOP. Sources close to the Republican National Committee and the party’s House leadership agree that Kirk becoming Governor would give them an ability to hold the line on congressional and legislative redistricting, something all states must address after the 2010 Census. (Six Republicans are already in the Governor’s race, but it’s already pretty clear none of them can beat Quinn, let alone Madigan.) Illinois will likely lose one congressional seat in reapportionment and, without controlling a legislative house or the Governor’s office, the congressional delegation – currently a dozen Democrats and seven Republicans -- could become even more lopsided.

Kirk’s strategy is simple, solid, and smart. He just waits until Madigan declares for Senate or Governor, then runs for the other office. This sets up the Democrats with a contentious primary battle in one contest and makes them vulnerable to him in either the Senate or Governor’s race because they can’t pair him against Madigan.

Those expecting Rep. Kirk to soon make an announcement about his political plans for 2010 will be disappointed. When Lisa Madigan declares, Mark Kirk will make his move, and then give the Republicans their first legitimate chance of winning a statewide office in the Land of Lincoln for more than a decade.