Mark Parkinson is the Democratic Governor of KansasWith budget crises dominating the news in almost every state, and term limits opening 19 of the 39* gubernatorial races to be decided in 2009-10, the Governors campaigns are becoming the hot electoral ticket.

Unlike in the US Senate, where minority Republicans have to defend just as many seats as the majority Democrats, the state house electoral count favors the GOP. Of the 39 races, 19 are open - in most cases because the incumbent can't legally succeed himself -- while another dozen races feature vulnerable incumbents, or at least somewhat so, according to various research data. Of the open seats, ten are currently in Democratic hands and nine are held by Republicans.

Already, eight seats are projected to change parties. Republicans are currently favored to secure the state houses in Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wyoming because Democratic Govs. Mark Parkinson, Brad Henry, Phil Bredesen, and Dave Freudenthal, respectively, are either retiring or barred from seeking third terms. Conversely, Democrats are favored to win in four states where Republican incumbents can't or aren't seeking re-election: California, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Rhode Island (Govs. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Lingle, Tim Pawlenty, and Don Carcieri, respectively).

An additional seven states are already in the toss-up column. Democratic incumbents Bill Ritter (CO), Jon Corzine (NJ), and Jim Doyle (WI) all have public surveys suggesting that they trail one or more Republican opponents. Democrats are also at risk in Michigan's open race (Gov. Jennifer Granholm term-limited), where four major Republican candidates are all polling strongly against Lt. Gov. John Cherry, the likely Democratic nominee. In Virginia, a very tight race is forecast for later this year between Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds and Republican former Attorney General Bob McDonnell. Republicans are also in toss-up situations in the open Florida race, almost assuredly featuring Attorney General Bill McCollum and state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink in the 2010 general election, and in Nevada where Gov. Jim Gibbons (NV), in big scandal and martial trouble, finds himself in very difficult political shape but so far refuses to step aside.

Spirited campaigns are expected for Govs. Jan Brewer (R-AZ), Patrick Quinn (D-IL), and David Paterson (D-NY) all of whom ascended to their individual offices because the elected incumbent departed. Among the three, Paterson is in deep trouble even in his own Democratic primary. Former presidential candidate and Congressman John Kasich has already officially launched his campaign against Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland in what promises to be a highly competitive race. Alabama, Georgia, and Maine will feature tough open seat contests, while major Republican primary action is occurring in South Carolina and Texas. The two latter states should remain in the GOP column regardless of who becomes the respective Republican standard-bearer.

Currently, the partisan breakdown among the 50 Governors shows 28 Democrats and 22 Republicans. With state and federal redistricting set to dominate the 2011 legislative cycles, it is clear that the electoral stakes are very high in 2010. Right now, Republicans look to be favorably positioned to gain two to four seats, bringing them to parity with their Democratic counterparts and narrowing the number of places where they have no seat at the figurative map-drawing table.

Though the federal races usually command the preponderance of national attention, for real politicos, the Governor's races are the ones worth watching.



* Utah is added to the active Governor's election list because Gov. Jon Huntsman is resigning upon his confirmation as US Ambassador to China. The state will now have a special election in 2010 to fill the balance of the term, which ends in 2012.