ANNOUNCEMENTS: GERLACH, WALBERG BOTH RUNNING
Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 01:39PM 
US Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA)The poltical picture in Pennsylvania and Michigan is becoming clearer. In the Keystone State, Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6) has informed the National Republican Congressional Committee that he will run for Governor next year, thus vacating his politically marginal congressional seat. An official statewide announcement is expected soon. Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell is term-limited, so the race for the state’s top elected position is wide open.
Gerlach first won his US House seat in 2002, winning with 51% of the vote. He went on to record two more 51-49% victories, but only stretched his 2008 percentage to 52 against weaker opposition. Still, when considering that President Obama simultaneously racked up 58% in the 6th district and as the Democrats’ top 2006 Pennsylvania target but the state’s only contested House Republican to survive in a wave election year, Rep. Gerlach’s political record is rather extraordinary.
His major opponent for the Republican gubernatorial nomination is Attorney General Tom Corbett. Ex-US Attorney Pat Meehan, also a former Delaware County District Attorney, is also in the race. Democrats are fielding three candidates, all of whom either have announced their intentions or are about to: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, State Auditor Jack Wagner, and businessman and former Philadelphia Mayoral candidate Tom Knox.
PA-6 is certainly a top Democratic conversion target. With Obama scoring a 58-41% win here last November, (the President’s statewide margin was 55-44%) the district has swung dramatically to the left since it was originally drawn in 2001. John Kerry garnered 52% of the district’s vote in 2004, and Al Gore won the precincts that currently comprise PA-6, too, but by only 1,000 votes back in 2000. Doug Pike, a former editorial page writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer and who claims to have already raised $630,000 for the campaign, is the only announced candidate for the congressional race. Considering Pike’s strong start, any other Democrat is now forced to quickly gain significant ground in order to overtake him for the nomination. Republicans are looking to state Rep. Curt Schroder, who was first elected to the legislature in 1994, and comes from the heart of the suburban Philadelphia district. Without Gerlach in the House race, the early 2010 rating begins as Lean Democrat.
Also yesterday, former Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI-7) officially said that he will attempt to reclaim the congressional seat from the man who beat him in 2008, Rep. Mark Schauer (D).
Ex-Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI)Walberg first won the 7th district in 2006, when he ousted Rep. Joe Schwarz in the Republican primary. Like Walberg, Schwarz served only two years in Congress, originally winning in 2004 when Rep. Nick Smith (R) retired after spending twelve years in Washington. Prior to 2004, the seat had been politically stable. For Walberg to win in 2010, the voters will have to reject an incumbent in three consecutive elections, an unusual occurrence in any US House district.
Schauer defeated Walberg 49-46% last November. The 7th district was drawn to be a Republican seat in the 2001 redistricting plan, but has trended more Democratic as the decade progressed and the Michigan economic picture worsened. President Obama, while winning statewide with 57% of the vote, carried MI-7, 52-46%. President George W. Bush won here in both 2004 and 2000. He garnered 54% against Kerry and 51% versus Gore.
The 7th district includes all or parts of seven counties, tucked between the state capital of Lansing and the Indiana border. It’s largest cities are Battle Creek, Jackson, and Adrian. Statewide, Michigan voter turnout topped 67% of those registered in October of last year. The MI-7 participation rate was closer to 63%. Based upon Michigan voter history, the two candidates can expect to see about an 18% drop-off in voter turnout next year, meaning that approximately 58,000 people who cast ballots in 2008 will not return to vote in 2010. The Schauer-Walberg re-match should be considered a toss-up.