WEEKEND FIREWORKS

Political bombshells exploded all over the country this past weekend.  In Arizona, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, and New York, contenders and new candidates were involved in significant occurrences.

Arizona: Hayworth to Run:  Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ-5) will challenge fellow Republican John McCain for the latter’s Senate seat later this year.  Hayworth said his official announcement tour will come at the end of March, but he is resigning from his successful radio talk show effective today to begin immediately assembling a campaign.

McCain has been expecting the challenge ever since polling late last year showed Hayworth within shouting distance of him.  Recent surveys, however, give the Senator a sizable advantage.  McCain has already taken the extraordinary step of running television ads attacking the former Representative  – calling him a big spender during his tenure in Congress – before the bombastic radio host had even decided to run.

Outlook:  This is a legitimate race.  Hayworth is banking upon McCain’s unpopularity with the Republican base.  Even in his national contest, the eventual GOP presidential nominee only scored 47% of the Arizona GOP primary vote against candidates who had virtually conceded him the state.  The fact that he won the primary by a large margin and captured all of the state’s winner-take-all delegates masked the fact that a majority of Republicans voted against their own home state Senator.  The primary is August 24^th.

Illinois: Poll Shows Gov. Quinn in Trouble:  A Market Shares Corporation survey conducted for the Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV reveals major trouble for Gov. Pat Quinn in the February 2^nd Democratic primary.  The data shows Quinn holding only a 44-40% lead over state Comptroller Dan Hynes.  The Republican side is surprising as well.  Former Attorney General Jim Ryan is in a dead heat with GOP State Chair Andy McKenna (19-18% in favor of the chairman), while businessman Kirk Dillard trails with 14%, and GOP state Sen. Bill Brady has 9%. 

Outlook:  All races are too close to call as we enter the last week of the primary campaign.  Quinn assumed the Governorship when Rod Blagojevich was impeached.  Hynes has been elected statewide three times and seems to have a legitimate chance for an upset.  A close Democratic primary could throw the general election into turmoil, especially with a strong Republican Senate candidate helping to drive turnout.

Indiana: Pence to Make Decision about Senate:  While confirming reports that he is being courted to challenge Sen. Evan Bayh, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN-6) said this weekend he will make a quick decision about running. 

Outlook:  Though Pence is likely the strongest possible Republican challenger against Bayh, and would certainly put the race into play, he faces an uphill climb against an incumbent who already possesses over $12 million cash-on-hand and consciously plays the “moderate” card.  Pence also has a lot to lose, given his #3 position in the House leadership.  Additionally, the Governor’s office will be open in 2012 and Sen. Richard Lugar will be up for re-election, so Pence has viable statewide options next time.  Gov. Mitch Daniels is ineligible to run for a third term in the next election and Lugar will be 80 at that time so his retirement is certainly a possibility.

Arkansas: Boozman Looks at Senate Run:  Rep. John Boozman (R-AR-3), the state’s lone Republican Congressman, is seriously considering a run against beleaguered Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln.  Though several Republicans are already in the race, none has Boozman’s statewide name recognition.  Reports indicate that the Congressman is talking to the other Senatorial candidates about his entering the contest.  Several are apparently saying they would likely exit the Senate race and either run for Boozman’s House seat or the newly-open 2^nd district (Rep. Vic Snyder retiring) if the five-term Representative ultimately runs. 

Outlook:  Particularly if Boozman gets a clear shot at Lincoln, this move makes strong sense for the Congressman and the GOP.  Lincoln is likely the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the nation and will have a hard time winning in November.  She may even have to fend off a tough primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter before qualifying for the general election. 

New York: Cuomo to Run for Governor:  In a move that has been anticipated for months, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is now publicly saying he will challenge embattled Gov. David Paterson in New York’s Democratic primary.  A formal announcement will come in March.  The primary is September 14^th.

Outlook: Cuomo will easily defeat Paterson.  His presence in the race will also deter any strong GOP opposition.  Cuomo is almost assuredly the state’s next Governor.