SENATE CHANGES

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh’s surprise retirement announcement puts the 2010 Senate election cycle into further disarray as now eight states, including Indiana, (moving from Safe Democrat) are in the Toss-up category.

To recap, Republicans and Democrats must protect 18 seats apiece in the 36-seat compliment of states for the 2010 elections.  Obviously, having only 41 total seats yet being forced to risk an equal number with the Democrats cuts into the GOP’s ability to reclaim the majority they lost in 2006.  Such a set-up means that the mathematics of the 2010 cycle plays to the Democrats favor and even though Republicans have clear momentum right now, the latter’s chances of getting to the 51 required seats to claim the chamber are slim.  To reach majority status, Republicans would have to win 27 of the 36 total seats being contested, a win percentage of .750 – not impossible to achieve, but certainly very difficult.

Of the eight states in the toss-up category, five are currently controlled by Democrats: Colorado (Bennet), Illinois (open Burris), Indiana (Bayh), Nevada (Reid), and Pennsylvania (Specter).  Three GOP states are also included in this category: the open seats in Missouri (Bond), New Hampshire (Gregg), and Ohio (Voinovich).  Republicans have a grand total of six open seats to protect (Florida, Kansas, and Kentucky are the other three) and must keep all to have any chance of scoring significant gains. 

Three Democratic states are already leaning Republican.  With Rep. John Boozman opening up greater than a 20 point lead in early polling against the beleaguered Sen. Blanche Lincoln, the Arkansas seat would, today, go to the GOP.  Two open Democratic seats (Delaware and North Dakota) are also heavy favorites to switch parties in the person of at-large Rep. Mike Castle (DE) and Gov. John Hoeven (ND).  Four currently held GOP seats are also in the Lean Republican category, two open seats (Florida and Kentucky) and two incumbent states (Louisiana and North Carolina). 

Two races are rated as Lean Democrat are already held by the party.  In California, recent polling showing Sen. Barbara Boxer having only single-digit margins against all potential opponents moves the Golden State from the Likely Democrat column into the Lean category.  The open Connecticut seat, now that Sen. Chris Dodd has decided not to seek re-election, moves all the way from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.  Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is a strong leader in all early general election polls and the clear favorite to hold the Nutmeg State for the Dems.

Other seats that could become competitive, though now are considered likely wins for the present party in control, include Arizona where Sen. John McCain faces former Rep. J.D. Hayworth in what could become a hard fought Republican primary.  The general election does not appear to be close at this point but a contentious late Republican primary (Aug 24) could change things for November.  Among Democrats, polling suggests that with the right Republican candidates Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (New York), Patty Murray (Washington), and Russ Feingold (Wisconsin) all could come into play.  If each of these races develop, a grand total of 21 of the 36 Senate contests could see serious political action.  At this writing it appears that ten Republican and five Democratic Senators are in safe re-election situations.

According to our PRIsm Information Network 2010 projections, Republicans are clearly leading in 18 states, Democrats in 10, with eight seats considered as Toss-ups.  This means Democrats are secure in 51 total seats; Republicans 41, and eight remain to close to call.