HOUSE RACES: A BUSY WEEKEND
Monday, March 1, 2010 at 11:47PM Three occurrences came to the forefront in separate congressional districts over the weekend. Rep. John Linder (R-GA-7) announced that he will not seek re-election; retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS-3) is hinting that his wife Stephene may be a candidate to succeed him; and endangered Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL-2) released the results of an internal poll showing him to be in surprisingly strong shape in what should be a highly competitive 2010 general election.
GA-7: Rep. Linder’s retirement effective upon completing his ninth term in office later this year increases the number of open seats to 37. Linder becomes the 20th House Republican to vacate his district, versus 17 Democrats. GA-7, a suburban Atlanta district located to the north and east of the city and includes the towns of Duluth, Lawrenceville, and Snellville. The seat is solidly Republican. Former President George W. Bush garnered 70 and 69% in his two campaigns (2004 and 2000, respectively). John McCain carried the district with 60% in 2008, eight points better than his statewide performance.
Linder was originally elected to Congress in 1992 and averaged 72.6% of the vote for his nine general elections. He only had one relatively serious challenge during the past decade, and that was in the 2002 Republican primary. After the Democrats drew Rep. Bob Barr out of his northwestern GA district, he hopped across Atlanta to challenge Linder for the state’s most Republican seat, even though Barr previously represented less than 20% of the new district and the redraw intended for Linder to represent the 7th. After a series of Barr gaffes, including a gun being accidentally fired at a fundraiser, Linder won the primary with 64% of the vote. No less than eleven names are already popping up as potential 2010 Republican candidates. The list includes six state legislators, three local officials, former Christian Coalition executive director and GOP state chairman Ralph Reed, and even professional baseball player John Smoltz, currently a free agent future Hall of Fame pitcher who spent his most productive years with the Atlanta Braves. No Democratic names are yet being mentioned.
KS-3: Quite possibly, the Democrats’ biggest candidate recruitment disappointment is in Kansas City. Six-term Rep. Dennis’ Moore’s early announcement that he would not seek re-election in his marginal district was met with mild surprise but, with so many Democratic officials living in the 3rd district, their political bench seemed strong.
Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon seemed to be the logical choice to succeed Moore, but he declined to run. So did former KC Mayor Carol Marinovich. Gov. Mark Parkinson, who was the former state Republican chairman before switching parties to be appointed Lt. Governor by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius prior to her accepting the position as Secretary of Health and Human Services, stayed true to his stated intention of retiring from politics and also declined to run for Congress. Now, Moore was hinting at a local Democratic Party meeting over the weekend that his wife, Stephene Moore, might be considering announcing her own candidacy. For her part, Mrs. Moore remains non-committal as to whether or not she will soon declare for the seat.
On the Republican side, 2008 nominee Nick Jordan, a former state Senator, appears to be the current leader. State Rep. Kevin Yoder is also a strong candidate in the early going.
AL-2: At the top of all Republican target lists is Democratic freshman Bobby Bright of Montgomery. A new Anzalone-Liszt poll taken for the Bright campaign, however, is suggesting a different story. The 500 person likely voter sample over the February 8-11 period gives Bright a commanding 54-30% lead over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, the GOP’s top candidate. Against state Board of Education member Stephanie Bell, who is not an announced candidate, Bright leads 55-29%. Paired with tea party activist Rick Barber, Bright’s advantage soars to 58-26%.
Rep. Bright, the former Mayor of Montgomery, won a close 1,700 vote victory over state Rep. Jay Love in 2008, and must defend what should be a safe Republican seat (Obama ’08: 36%) with what is projected to be only an average turnout among African American voters. Blacks make up almost 30% of the district’s voting population. Their strong support of all Democratic candidates propelled Bright to victory two years ago. He will need more broad-based support if he is to win a second term later this year.