Baldwin Announces; New MA Senate Poll; Halvorson vs. Jackson

Wisconsin:  As expected, Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI-2) formally announced her bid for Wisconsin’s open US Senate seat, yesterday.  The Congresswoman has been preparing a statewide bid for months, but only kicked her fledging operation into high gear when former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) decided not to become a candidate.  Vacating the safely Democratic 2nd District means that 41 seats are now open due to an incumbent announcing he or she will not seek re-election, or because reapportionment or redistricting creates an incumbent-less district.

The Wisconsin campaign has been a slow moving.  Incumbent Sen. Herb Kohl (D) announced back on May 13th that he would not seek a fourth term next year, yet official candidate announcements began only last week.  Rep. Baldwin now becomes the third person to enter the field of contenders.  On the Republican side, former Rep. Mark Neumann (R-WI-1) and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald both say they are in the race.  Former Gov. Tommy Thompson is expected to soon join the Republican contestants.  Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI-3) and ex-Congressman Steve Kagen (D-WI-8) are potential Democratic nomination opponents to Ms. Baldwin.

The Wisconsin Senate race is likely to be one of the closest statewide political contests in the nation next year.  The outcome could well decide the Senate majority, as projections suggest that both parties will likely be at parity after the next election.  Currently, the Democrats hold a 53-47 spread.  Republicans are already likely to gain two seats - North Dakota open and Nebraska - thus bringing the party division to 51D-49R.  Missouri (Sen. Claire McCaskill), Virginia (open - Sen. Jim Webb retiring), and Montana (Sen. Jon Tester) are all toss-up Democratic seats in addition to Wisconsin.  All other races remaining constant, the Republicans would have to win two of the latter four to take the majority; Democrats would have to hold three of four to retain power.

Massachusetts Senate Poll:  The Mass Inc. polling organization surveyed the Bay State electorate for NPR radio station WBUR in Boston (8/30-9/1; 500 likely MA voters).  For the first time, a poll is showing Sen. Scott Brown (R) ahead by less than a double-digit spread.  Despite Obama Administration Consumer Advocate Elizabeth Warren only scoring a 17:13% positive to negative favorability ratio, she pulls to within 35-44% of Sen. Brown. 

Against the other potential Democratic contenders, however, Brown still remains firmly in control.  When paired with author and Episcopal priest Bob Massie, the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor in 1994, the Senator leads 45-29%.  Against businessman and former US Senate candidate Alan Khazei, Brown’s advantage is a full fifteen points, 45-30%.  Finally, in a one-on-one contest with Newton Mayor Setti Warren, the first-term Senatorial incumbent pulls away by an even greater 46-28% margin.  Brown’s favorability index is a strong 54:25%.

IL-2:  A rather surprising announcement came from the Chicago suburbs at the end of last week.  Former Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL-11), who lost her congressional seat 43-57% to Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL-11) after just one term in office, says she will challenge Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL-2) in the 2012 March Democratic primary for his 2nd District seat.  Prior to her serving in Congress, Ms. Halvorson was the state Senate Majority Leader.

This is a curious move and appears to be a long shot political effort.  While the new 2nd District does contain part of the territory Halvorson previously represented, it is overwhelmingly comprised of Jackson’s constituents.  In fact, 78.1% of the new 2nd’s inhabitants remain from Rep. Jackson’s current district, versus just 21.8% of residents from Halvorson’s former 11th CD who are now placed in IL-2.  The racial composition is another factor that cuts dramatically in Mr. Jackson’s favor.  As many as 55.8% of the district population is African American versus just 29.6% who are non-Hispanic White.  Hispanics account for 12.8% of the population mix, while Asians number less than 1% of the voting base. 

Favor Jesse Jackson, Jr. to win the Democratic nomination here, but Debbie Halvorson’s entry into the race certainly brings a new twist to this political story.