Mr. Critz won the endorsement meeting 47 to 22 over former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer and Cambria County Controller Ed Cernic, Jr., who had 14 votes.  Tonight, the 50-member Pennsylvania Democratic Executive Committee meets to formally nominate a candidate for the May 18^th special election.  With the local Democrats expressing a clear preference for Critz, it appears almost a certainty that the state officials will follow suit and officially award him the Democratic nomination.

Such a decision, however, will apparently not unite the Party.  Hafer says she will file to run for the regular term regardless of what action the state Party takes, thus creating a situation where Critz may win the special election, but could theoretically lose the regular primary to the better known Hafer.

Republicans will caucus on Thursday to choose their nominee.  Businessman Tim Burns and 2008 GOP nominee William Russell are the two men under consideration before the Republican committee.  It is likely that they, too, will face each other in the regular primary since the candidate filing deadline, which is tomorrow, comes before an official nominee is chosen.

The special election will likely be close, but the Democrats enjoy at least a slight advantage to hold the seat. 

NY-29:  Rep. Eric Massa resigns today, which will lead to a special election to fill the balance of the freshman Democrat’s lone term in office.  Corning Mayor Tom Reed, who was cruising unopposed to the regular Republican nomination when Massa was running for re-election, will now have company from fellow GOP office holders. 

Reed was viewed to be a serious candidate, but had not met fundraising goals.  According to his year-end report, the Mayor had obtained $230,276, but with only $122,564 remaining in the bank.  Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks is indicating that she is seriously considering becoming a candidate, now that the seat will be open, and could quickly move to the front of the list of Republican hopefuls.  Democrats are looking to state Assemblyman David Koon, who says he will run, and Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan, who may.  Elmira Mayor John Tonello is another possible Democratic candidate.  Elmira is the 29^th district’s largest city.

Gov. David Paterson will be tasked with scheduling the special election.  Both political parties will caucus to choose nominees.  At that point the Governor will then act, since the election must be conducted between 30 and 40 days once he issues the official call.  This is a prime Republican conversion opportunity.

MA-10: As expected, GOP former state Treasurer Joe Malone announced that he will run in the now open 10^th congressional district this year.  Rep. Bill Delahunt made his decision to retire public last week.  Democrats are making moves behind the scenes, but no one has yet made their candidacy official.  State Rep. Jeff Perry, who was running even before Delahunt decided to end his congressional career, remains a GOP contender.

GA-9:  Rep. Nathan Deal, who last week said he would resign his seat today to concentrate fully on his campaign for Governor, now says he will stay until the end of the month in order to vote against the Democratic healthcare plan.  Deal was taking hits from Republicans because his absence in the House would have made Speaker Pelosi’s task one vote easier in cobbling together majority support for the healthcare bill.

The victory was huge for Perry, as he won nomination for a third full term as the Lone Star State’s chief executive.  He also finished George W. Bush’s final term as Governor, ascending to the top post from his post as Lt. Governor.  He is already the longest-serving Governor in the history of Texas, and will be a heavy favorite to win re-election in November in what is shaping up to be a strong Republican year in America’s second largest state. 

The results reflected a monumental collapse for Hutchison, who began the race early last year with a big lead over the Governor.  Her on again-off again resignation from the Senate, a lack of issues focus in her advertising, poorly delivered attacks on Perry for his failed Trans-Texas Corridor project, and highlighting her endorsements from liberal newspapers to one of the most conservative voting electorates in the country cumulatively proved to be a highly flawed campaign strategy, despite the presence of Bush advisor Karl Rove as one of her top consultants.  The endorsement of former President George H.W. Bush, ex-VP Dick Cheney, and most of the Republican congressional delegation also did little to help her. 

Perry successfully labeled Hutchison as a Washington insider who had lost touch with the people back home.  He lambasted her support of the Bush-Obama financial bail-out legislation, coining the nickname Kay “Bail-out” Hutchison.  Perry moved hard right, playing to the primary electorate, by claiming that President Obama was “punishing” Texas, and even mused that succession from the US might be a subject people would begin addressing if the federal government continued along its current path. 

The Governor now faces former Houston Mayor Bill White in the general election.  White easily won the Democratic nomination, notching 76.5% of the vote in a field of weak candidates.  It appears that under 5% of the registered voters will have participated in the Democratic primary when all of the votes are finalized.  White’s total vote of approximately 450,000, representing ¾ of the total Dem ballots cast, is still more than 250,000 votes under Perry’s total, and he had just half of the Republican vote.  Total turnout will break 15% -- over 2 million voters -- which is a very large number for a Texas primary.  In 2006, for example, combined total turnout was only 1.1 million.

Though Washington, DC was completely rejected in the Governor’s race, the members of the congressional delegation facing primary challenges all did very well.  For Republicans, Reps. Ralph Hall (57%), Kevin Brady (79%), Michael McCaul (82%), Mike Conaway (77%), Kay Granger (70%), Ron Paul (81%), Lamar Smith (81%), Kenny Marchant (84%), Michael Burgess (86%), John Carter (90%), and Pete Sessions (84%) all cruised to easy victories.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Ruben Hinojosa (85%), Sheila Jackson Lee (67%, though the vast majority of votes in this district remain uncounted), and Ciro Rodriguez (83%) likewise won comfortably. 

In races that could potentially become competitive in the general election, the 17^th district of Rep. Chet Edwards (D) and against Rodriguez in the 23^rd, run-offs will be held on April 13 to finally determine nominees in those two seats.  2008 nominee Rob Curnock (29%) and businessman Bill Flores (33%) will square-off for the right to face Edwards.  This race could quickly move into the toss-up category.  Former CIA officer Bill Hurd (34%) and businessman Quico Canseco (32%) will duel in the Rodriguez seat.  The Congressman will be a decided favorite in the general election.

GA-7:  Rep. Linder’s retirement effective upon completing his ninth term in office later this year increases the number of open seats to 37.  Linder becomes the 20^th House Republican to vacate his district, versus 17 Democrats.  GA-7, a suburban Atlanta district located to the north and east of the city and includes the towns of Duluth, Lawrenceville, and Snellville.  The seat is solidly Republican.  Former President George W. Bush garnered 70 and 69% in his two campaigns (2004 and 2000, respectively).  John McCain carried the district with 60% in 2008, eight points better than his statewide performance.

Linder was originally elected to Congress in 1992 and averaged 72.6% of the vote for his nine general elections.  He only had one relatively serious challenge during the past decade, and that was in the 2002 Republican primary.  After the Democrats drew Rep. Bob Barr out of his northwestern GA district, he hopped across Atlanta to challenge Linder for the state’s most Republican seat, even though Barr previously represented less than 20% of the new district and the redraw intended for Linder to represent the 7^th.  After a series of Barr gaffes, including a gun being accidentally fired at a fundraiser, Linder won the primary with 64% of the vote.  No less than eleven names are already popping up as potential 2010 Republican candidates.  The list includes six state legislators, three local officials, former Christian Coalition executive director and GOP state chairman Ralph Reed, and even professional baseball player John Smoltz, currently a free agent future Hall of Fame pitcher who spent his most productive years with the Atlanta Braves.  No Democratic names are yet being mentioned.

KS-3:  Quite possibly, the Democrats’ biggest candidate recruitment disappointment is in Kansas City.  Six-term Rep. Dennis’ Moore’s early announcement that he would not seek re-election in his marginal district was met with mild surprise but, with so many Democratic officials living in the 3^rd district, their political bench seemed strong. 

Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon seemed to be the logical choice to succeed Moore, but he declined to run.  So did former KC Mayor Carol Marinovich.  Gov. Mark Parkinson, who was the former state Republican chairman before switching parties to be appointed Lt. Governor by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius prior to her accepting the position as Secretary of Health and Human Services, stayed true to his stated intention of retiring from politics and also declined to run for Congress.  Now, Moore was hinting at a local Democratic Party meeting over the weekend that his wife, Stephene Moore, might be considering announcing her own candidacy.  For her part, Mrs. Moore remains non-committal as to whether or not she will soon declare for the seat. 

On the Republican side, 2008 nominee Nick Jordan, a former state Senator, appears to be the current leader.  State Rep. Kevin Yoder is also a strong candidate in the early going. 

AL-2:  At the top of all Republican target lists is Democratic freshman Bobby Bright of Montgomery.  A new Anzalone-Liszt poll taken for the Bright campaign, however, is suggesting a different story.  The 500 person likely voter sample over the February 8-11 period gives Bright a commanding 54-30% lead over Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby, the GOP’s top candidate.  Against state Board of Education member Stephanie Bell, who is not an announced candidate, Bright leads 55-29%.  Paired with tea party activist Rick Barber, Bright’s advantage soars to 58-26%.

Rep. Bright, the former Mayor of Montgomery, won a close 1,700 vote victory over state Rep. Jay Love in 2008, and must defend what should be a safe Republican seat (Obama ’08: 36%) with what is projected to be only an average turnout among African American voters.  Blacks make up almost 30% of the district’s voting population.  Their strong support of all Democratic candidates propelled Bright to victory two years ago.  He will need more broad-based support if he is to win a second term later this year.

While Reid has routinely trailed the two top Republican candidates, former state GOP chair Sue Lowden and ex-Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian -- son of the legendary University of Nevada at Las Vegas basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian -- this new data, commissioned by a source group friendly to Reid, is revealing leads for both Lowden and Tarkanian are well into double-digits.

Against Lowden, Reid trails 39-53% and has a huge 36-60% deficit among male voters.  The former Republican chair, 1973 Miss America contestant, and casino owner enjoys a 46-42% advantage among females.  Lowden is attracting 88% support among Republicans when paired with the Majority Leader, 20% from Democrats, and leads the all-important Independent category 58-32%.  Tarkanian’s numbers are similar.  He tops Reid 54-40% in the overall vote count; has the same 60-36% whopping advantage among men; and leads with women 48-44%.  He gets 89% support from Republicans; 21% among Democrats; and Independents split 59-34% in his favor.

Not surprisingly, Reid’s best support group is African American voters, where he clears 73% against both Republicans.  He also does well with Obama voters, which certainly stands to reason.  Of the respondents claiming they voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, Reid keeps 56%, but even within this sub-group, a full third (32% for Tarkanian; 34% pledging to Lowden) are saying they will vote Republican for Senate. 

By a margin of 53-29%, the respondents believe President Obama and the Democrats in Washington have not delivered on their campaign promise to “change” America.  The healthcare numbers, in fact the purpose for which the PCCC sanctioned the poll, are quite disparate.  Overall, by a margin of 34-58%, the respondents oppose the healthcare bill that was before the Senate.  Conversely, the split is 56-38% in favor of the federal government offering the choice to buy into a government-administered health insurance plan that would compete with the private sector.  They also would look more favorably upon Reid if he could pass such a plan (34-15% more likely to support).

Though the Majority Leader’s numbers are poor, and reminiscent of former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine’s political position in early 2009 – a situation he never succeeded in reversing – there are some parts of the set-up equation that do play to his favor and don’t rule out a come back. 

Nevada has officially recognized the Tea Party as a statewide political entity.  This means the Tea Party has the right to field candidates for office and will likely nominate a U.S. Senate standard bearer.  If the race tightens, which is likely, the Nevada Tea Party’s candidate will presumably take votes away from the eventual Republican nominee, especially if it is Lowden, who many in the Tea Party movement term a “Republican in Name Only (RINO)”.  Secondly, Reid’s overwhelming ability to command campaign resources will certainly dwarf the Republican campaign dollar effort, but in a high profile race such as this, individual candidate and outside group spending becomes a bit less important.  Third, Nevada has been trending Democratic in the past few elections, meaning the state’s political and demographic trends are more beneficial to Reid and his party than the Republicans.

Another negative, however, concerns Reid’s own son.  Rory Reid is a Clark County (Las Vegas) Commissioner who is openly talking about running for Governor.  Though Republican incumbent Jim Gibbons is in deep political trouble, it is more likely that not he will be defeated in the GOP primary, assuming he even runs for re-election.  Any other Republican will be stronger against the Democrats, meaning the fact that both Harry and Rory Reid will be on the ballot could then become troublesome for both men.  Candidate filing closes on March 12^th, so the younger Reid has only several weeks to officially enter the race.  The Nevada primary is June 8^th. 

To recap, Republicans and Democrats must protect 18 seats apiece in the 36-seat compliment of states for the 2010 elections.  Obviously, having only 41 total seats yet being forced to risk an equal number with the Democrats cuts into the GOP’s ability to reclaim the majority they lost in 2006.  Such a set-up means that the mathematics of the 2010 cycle plays to the Democrats favor and even though Republicans have clear momentum right now, the latter’s chances of getting to the 51 required seats to claim the chamber are slim.  To reach majority status, Republicans would have to win 27 of the 36 total seats being contested, a win percentage of .750 – not impossible to achieve, but certainly very difficult.

Of the eight states in the toss-up category, five are currently controlled by Democrats: Colorado (Bennet), Illinois (open Burris), Indiana (Bayh), Nevada (Reid), and Pennsylvania (Specter).  Three GOP states are also included in this category: the open seats in Missouri (Bond), New Hampshire (Gregg), and Ohio (Voinovich).  Republicans have a grand total of six open seats to protect (Florida, Kansas, and Kentucky are the other three) and must keep all to have any chance of scoring significant gains. 

Three Democratic states are already leaning Republican.  With Rep. John Boozman opening up greater than a 20 point lead in early polling against the beleaguered Sen. Blanche Lincoln, the Arkansas seat would, today, go to the GOP.  Two open Democratic seats (Delaware and North Dakota) are also heavy favorites to switch parties in the person of at-large Rep. Mike Castle (DE) and Gov. John Hoeven (ND).  Four currently held GOP seats are also in the Lean Republican category, two open seats (Florida and Kentucky) and two incumbent states (Louisiana and North Carolina). 

Two races are rated as Lean Democrat are already held by the party.  In California, recent polling showing Sen. Barbara Boxer having only single-digit margins against all potential opponents moves the Golden State from the Likely Democrat column into the Lean category.  The open Connecticut seat, now that Sen. Chris Dodd has decided not to seek re-election, moves all the way from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.  Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is a strong leader in all early general election polls and the clear favorite to hold the Nutmeg State for the Dems.

Other seats that could become competitive, though now are considered likely wins for the present party in control, include Arizona where Sen. John McCain faces former Rep. J.D. Hayworth in what could become a hard fought Republican primary.  The general election does not appear to be close at this point but a contentious late Republican primary (Aug 24) could change things for November.  Among Democrats, polling suggests that with the right Republican candidates Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (New York), Patty Murray (Washington), and Russ Feingold (Wisconsin) all could come into play.  If each of these races develop, a grand total of 21 of the 36 Senate contests could see serious political action.  At this writing it appears that ten Republican and five Democratic Senators are in safe re-election situations.

According to our PRIsm Information Network 2010 projections, Republicans are clearly leading in 18 states, Democrats in 10, with eight seats considered as Toss-ups.  This means Democrats are secure in 51 total seats; Republicans 41, and eight remain to close to call.

Arizona: Hayworth to Run:  Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ-5) will challenge fellow Republican John McCain for the latter’s Senate seat later this year.  Hayworth said his official announcement tour will come at the end of March, but he is resigning from his successful radio talk show effective today to begin immediately assembling a campaign.

McCain has been expecting the challenge ever since polling late last year showed Hayworth within shouting distance of him.  Recent surveys, however, give the Senator a sizable advantage.  McCain has already taken the extraordinary step of running television ads attacking the former Representative  – calling him a big spender during his tenure in Congress – before the bombastic radio host had even decided to run.

Outlook:  This is a legitimate race.  Hayworth is banking upon McCain’s unpopularity with the Republican base.  Even in his national contest, the eventual GOP presidential nominee only scored 47% of the Arizona GOP primary vote against candidates who had virtually conceded him the state.  The fact that he won the primary by a large margin and captured all of the state’s winner-take-all delegates masked the fact that a majority of Republicans voted against their own home state Senator.  The primary is August 24^th.

Illinois: Poll Shows Gov. Quinn in Trouble:  A Market Shares Corporation survey conducted for the Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV reveals major trouble for Gov. Pat Quinn in the February 2^nd Democratic primary.  The data shows Quinn holding only a 44-40% lead over state Comptroller Dan Hynes.  The Republican side is surprising as well.  Former Attorney General Jim Ryan is in a dead heat with GOP State Chair Andy McKenna (19-18% in favor of the chairman), while businessman Kirk Dillard trails with 14%, and GOP state Sen. Bill Brady has 9%. 

Outlook:  All races are too close to call as we enter the last week of the primary campaign.  Quinn assumed the Governorship when Rod Blagojevich was impeached.  Hynes has been elected statewide three times and seems to have a legitimate chance for an upset.  A close Democratic primary could throw the general election into turmoil, especially with a strong Republican Senate candidate helping to drive turnout.

Indiana: Pence to Make Decision about Senate:  While confirming reports that he is being courted to challenge Sen. Evan Bayh, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN-6) said this weekend he will make a quick decision about running. 

Outlook:  Though Pence is likely the strongest possible Republican challenger against Bayh, and would certainly put the race into play, he faces an uphill climb against an incumbent who already possesses over $12 million cash-on-hand and consciously plays the “moderate” card.  Pence also has a lot to lose, given his #3 position in the House leadership.  Additionally, the Governor’s office will be open in 2012 and Sen. Richard Lugar will be up for re-election, so Pence has viable statewide options next time.  Gov. Mitch Daniels is ineligible to run for a third term in the next election and Lugar will be 80 at that time so his retirement is certainly a possibility.

Arkansas: Boozman Looks at Senate Run:  Rep. John Boozman (R-AR-3), the state’s lone Republican Congressman, is seriously considering a run against beleaguered Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln.  Though several Republicans are already in the race, none has Boozman’s statewide name recognition.  Reports indicate that the Congressman is talking to the other Senatorial candidates about his entering the contest.  Several are apparently saying they would likely exit the Senate race and either run for Boozman’s House seat or the newly-open 2^nd district (Rep. Vic Snyder retiring) if the five-term Representative ultimately runs. 

Outlook:  Particularly if Boozman gets a clear shot at Lincoln, this move makes strong sense for the Congressman and the GOP.  Lincoln is likely the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the nation and will have a hard time winning in November.  She may even have to fend off a tough primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter before qualifying for the general election. 

New York: Cuomo to Run for Governor:  In a move that has been anticipated for months, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is now publicly saying he will challenge embattled Gov. David Paterson in New York’s Democratic primary.  A formal announcement will come in March.  The primary is September 14^th.

Outlook: Cuomo will easily defeat Paterson.  His presence in the race will also deter any strong GOP opposition.  Cuomo is almost assuredly the state’s next Governor.

This means that corporations, associations, and labor unions can now spend freely on independent political expenditures from their treasury funds, and in unlimited amounts.  They can expressly advocate election or defeat of a candidate at any time during or before an election. 

The majority was particularly tough on the federal regulators at the Federal Election Commission, referring to certain previous acts as 1^st Amendment censorship.  The Court viewed this decision as simply restoring the free speech rights that had been curtailed in McCain-Feingold.  The decision weakens the FEC and stops the practice of forcing entities desiring to speak of obtaining an advisory opinion from the Commission before such speech can be uttered. 

Direct contributions to federal candidates are still banned.  Corporate or labor union donations are still prohibited for national political parties.  Entities still may not coordinate their expenditures but they are free to contribute to groups or associations that desire to express an opinion in the political world.

Since this is a constitutional ruling, merely passing a new statute cannot alter this opinion.  The legislative and executive branches can only change yesterday’s decision via constitutional amendment. 

Interestingly, the corporate and labor entities, should they choose to do so, can become more powerful than even the candidates themselves in conducting a persuasion campaign, so long as the expenditures are independent and disclosed.  The political parties, already drastically weakened by McCain-Feingold, may find themselves even worse off after this decision.  Now, any one single corporation, association, or labor union will have the ability to be a greater advocate for or against a candidate than the political party committee, and in certain instances the candidate himself.

The decision clearly makes it easier to engage in independent expenditures and participate in the political process for everyone and every entity other than a national political party committee. 

It remains to be seen how the ruling will affect the coming election cycle, but it is clear that the electorate has greater free speech rights regardless of the timing of such speech, than it did yesterday.

The Citizens United ruling is a major breakthrough for free speech advocates of all political persuasions and a crushing setback for the government regulators.  This will also create a domino effect in states that have similar speech restrictions on entities within their jurisdictions.

Soon after his tenure in Washington began, however, his views began to change.  Voting with the Republicans on all of the term’s major issues – the stimulus package, the Obama budget, Cap & Trade, healthcare, and the financial regulatory package – Griffith quickly became an unreliable vote in his party’s conference.  Soon after casting his early key votes, the Representative announced that he would no longer support Ms. Pelosi for Speaker.  Yesterday, he officially left the Democratic Party and joined the Republicans. 

"I believe our nation is at a crossroads and I can no longer align myself with a party that continues to pursue legislation that is bad for our country, hurts our economy, and drives us further and further into debt," Griffith said in announcing his party switching decision during a news conference from his northern Alabama district.

Though the freshman’s road to 2010 re-election is clearly different, it might not be any easier.  Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, already running to oppose Griffith next November, has no plans to exit the race now that he is suddenly facing the Congressman in the Republican primary.  Brooks believes Griffith will find the GOP electorate inhospitable.  “That’s a tough jury to sell, particularly when you’ve voted with Nancy Pelosi 85% of the time.  It’s unbelievably good fortune that Parker Griffith would jump into our pool and want to play…he has just propelled us to favored candidate status,” Brooks told reporters. 

Democrats, obviously, responded negatively to the news.  According to Alabama Democratic Party chairman Joe Turnham, himself a former congressional candidate, the local party faithful feel “betrayed” by Griffith.  "Democrats of every stripe and philosophy sweated and bled for this man.  He narrowly became a congressman through the hard work, votes and financial contributions of thousands of Democrats,“ the chairman said in his official statement.  Turnham also asked Griffith to return the contributions from Democrats and the Congressman responded affirmatively, saying he will refund contributions upon request.

Though AL-5 is a Republican seat in presidential elections (McCain 08: 61; Bush ’04: 60; Bush ’00: 54), Democrats have won 17 consecutive congressional campaigns and for years this region has been an area of frustration for the GOP.  Before Griffith’s 2008 victory, Ronnie G. Flippo held the Huntsville area seat for seven terms, followed by Bud Cramer’s nine two-year stints.  Flippo left the seat to run unsuccessfully for Governor in 1990.  Cramer retired at the beginning of this Congress.  With the Democrats now scrambling to find a candidate, the seat rating swings to “likely Republican.”  The new House count is 257 Democrats and 178 Republicans.

TX-10: McDonald Withdraws:  After raising almost $1 million to challenge three-term Rep. Michael McCaul (R), and becoming one of the best national Democratic challengers in the process, Perficient, Inc. CEO Jack McDonald announced that he will not run for Congress after all, citing business responsibilities.  With the Democrats now having no credible candidate in the sprawling TX-10 district that travels from Austin to Houston, and the January 4^th filing deadline rapidly approaching, the seat rating moves from “lean Republican” to “likely Republican.”

The good news for Specter is his showing among Democrats.  Against Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7), his opponent for the party’s nomination, the Senator leads 53-30%.  Specter improves nine points from the late September poll relating to primary performance.  Sestak, however, gained too, up five points.  Against his GOP opponent, Specter pulls 78% of Democrats.  Toomey gets 80% of Republicans, meaning that the former GOP Senator is gaining acceptance among Democratic rank and file voters.  In what should be a cause for concern for the Senator, Independents favor Toomey by a 44-36% margin. The Republican leads Sestak 40-35% when those two are individually matched.

The bad news for Specter relates to his job approval and favorability ratings, and especially his re-elect score.  In terms of job performance, Specter is rated 47:45% positive to negative.  In an unusual occurrence, the Senator’s personal ratings are actually worse than the grade he receives for executing his Senatorial duties.  Forty-three percent of those surveyed have a positive impression about Arlen Specter the person, but 45% view him negatively.  Conversely, Toomey’s personal favorability index is 35:10%, and Sestak records 20:9%.  The Senator’s worst number is clearly his re-elect rating.  As to whether the sample believes the Senator deserves re-election, only 38% answered affirmatively versus a full 50% who do not.

The poll also rated Pennsylvania’s other statewide officials.  Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. fared the best among the respondents, with a job approval rating of 53:29%.  President Obama scored 49:45%, but was upside down on the key issues of handling the economy (45:50%) and healthcare (37:56%), while being favorably viewed on the Afghanistan question (51:41%).  Gov. Ed Rendell also posted negative job approval numbers (43:49%), while the state legislature was rated overwhelmingly poor, 25:64%.

In the open Governor’s race, which is a critical office from a national congressional redistricting perspective, Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to maintain a sizable lead against all potential Democratic nominees.  Corbett, with an overwhelmingly strong 43:6% approval rating, leads Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato 45-30%, with a 43-33% advantage over state Auditor Jack Wagner.  Among the five Democratic candidates, Onorato leads the field, but only registers 14% support, meaning the nomination fight is wide open.  On the Republican side, Corbett leads Philadelphia area Rep. Jim Gerlach 38-12%.

The move took the state’s Democratic leaders by surprise.  Party chairman Brian Schatz said he was expecting the Congressman to leave before the end of the current session, but is “surprised how early” Abercrombie’s decision came. 

Sen. Daniel Inouye, himself running for re-election in 2010, disapproves of the Representative’s exit.  In an email response to the Hawaii Star Bulletin newspaper, Inouye said, “It leaves us a vote shy in the House at a time when major policy changes like health care reform, a war spending measure, the Akaka Bill and others are shaping up for debate and passage."

The greater intrigue, however, surrounds Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann.  He has also filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee and is Abercrombie’s main opponent for the Democratic nomination.  The Mayor, too, was critical of Mr. Abercrombie departing the House mid-term.  "He is leaving the state in a lurch.  He has become a very influential member of Congress. I think he put a lot of people in a difficult situation, including the city," Hannemann said during a news interview. 

Abercrombie and Hannemann have a history of opposing each other.  When the 1^st congressional district was vacated in the middle of 1986, Abercrombie won a special election to fill out the remainder of the existing term, but lost the Democratic nomination to Hannemann for the succeeding term (to begin in 1987) on the same day.  Hannemann then went on to lose the 1986 general election to Republican Pat Saiki.  Abercrombie was subsequently elected to the House in 1990 after Saiki chose to run for the Senate instead of seeking re-election. 

The resignation throws the 2010 race for the open 1^st CD into chaos.  Already former 2^nd district Rep. Ed Case and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa were seeking the Democratic nomination.  The winner will oppose consensus GOP candidate Charles Djou, a Honolulu city Councilman and former state legislator, who is quickly becoming recognized as one of the Republican’s best national congressional candidates. 

This is also not the first time that Case and Hanabusa have faced each other.  The two ran in the open 2^nd district 2003 special after the death of Rep. Patsy Mink; a free-for-all election won by Case.  He then unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Daniel Akaka in the 2006 Democratic primary after serving less than two full terms in Congress. 

Many believe that a tough Democratic primary decided on September 18^th will give Djou a strong chance at an upset win the following November.  Now, the prospects of a special election could considerably change the campaign’s political outlook – or not.

Under Hawaii law, the state’s Chief Elections Officer is responsible for  scheduling special elections and not the Governor.  Kevin Cronin, the current holder of that particular post but who is already leaving by year’s end, is saying his department lacks the funding to hold a special congressional election.  He further believes that the Office of Elections doesn’t even have access to voting machines prior to next year’s regular primary and general elections. 

Since Cronin’s eventual replacement will make the scheduling decision, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy what will happen next.  It is conceivable that the seat could even remain vacant until the regular 2010 primary (Sept 18) or general election (Nov 2) at which time the special election could be run concurrently. 

Next year’s HI-1 race was already among the most interesting in the nation, and a place where the Republicans have expanded the competitive playing field.  Now, even greater attention will be given to what promises to be a hot political campaign in a faraway tropical paradise.